Abstract
By 2025, Europe will represent only 6% of the world population, and its relative share of global wealth and trade will have shrunk. Contentious economic and welfare reforms as well as the integration of a growing migrant population will be among the key internal challenges for many EU Member States. Based on current trends, the EU may also be surrounded by an increasingly turbulent neighborhood, from Russia to the Mediterranean and Africa. The ongoing debate on the future of Europe suffers from a lack of perspective on the global developments that are changing the context of European integration itself. Too often European integration is regarded as a regular process, advancing or stalling, depending on endogenous or intra-European variables only. Absorbed in endless debates on the reform of their political, economic and social structures, there is a risk that the EU and its member states may loose sight on the momentous developments taking place beyond their borders, yet affecting their own future. While Europe ponders its own future, the future of the world is in the making. The risk is that the Union and its Member States will be increasingly subject to, rather than actors of, change.
