"Understanding the Multi-Scale Syrian Conflict: Actors, Objectives, and Consequences"
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Themes
Syria conflict, multiple scales, national actors, regional actors, international actors, civil aspirations, Bashar al-Assad, Syrian opposition, Kurdish militias, Daesh, terrorism, geopolitics, Middle East
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Abstract
"Explore the complex Syrian conflict through a detailed analysis of its multiple scales and actors. Understand how conventional and non-conventional actors, including national, regional, and international forces, shape the conflict's dynamics. Discover the diverse political and military objectives driving the conflict, from the ambitions of Iran, Turkey, and the PKK to the interests of global powers like the USA, EU, and Russia. Learn how the conflict has evolved over time, resulting in a mosaic of rivalries, occupations, and humanitarian crises. Uncover the implications for Syria's future, including the potential for durable division and the ongoing struggle for democracy and human rights."
Extract
[...] As for the civilian population, it remains desperately in search of political rights, democracy since 2011. At the regional and international levels, the aspirations of the regional and international conventional actors present are multiple and variable. This generates disturbances, changes in the situation, and even an apparent blockage. Let us mention Qatar and Saudi Arabia. They encouraged the Syrian rebellion beforehand and the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad. Since 2023, the latter can benefit from their support after his reintegration into the Arab League. [...]
[...] After thirteen years of conflict, thousands of deaths and millions of refugees, Syria appears as a mosaic. The Loyalist Forces, the Syrian Democratic Forces the Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda, the Turks, the Syrian National Army (SNA) and the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) and various military bases share the territory, there to settle their differences. In 2024, the occupation of Syria now seems to think of a durable division. In fact, it is a false idea, especially due to the existence of many political and military objectives from a game of conventional and non-conventional actors on the national, regional, and international levels. [...]
[...] These actors all have different political and military objectives, with various consequences for the conflict. Among the regional conventional actors, we find the ambition of Iran to weaken Israel, the will of Turkey to protect the southern border, a PKK wanting to take advantage of the destabilization of the country. Any monopoly is made impossible. The opposition is all the more weakened. By allowing such an unstable security situation to settle, tensions between Syria and the EU have therefore intensified. [...]
[...] This context reinforces the situation of Syria as an intense and multi-scale conflict zone. And yet, it seems to be put on the backburner by conventional actors given its position on a crisis axis between the Western bloc and the Eurasian bloc, led by Russia, Iran, and China, as in the time of the Cold War. Unfortunately, in the different scenarios, the civil aspirations expressed in 2011 are relegated to the background, or even forgotten, due to the multitude of scales of the conflict. [...]
