Abstract
The business cycle is a constant in all the world economies since the Industrial Revolution occurred. By “business cycle”, we mean the fluctuations of the growth rate of the economy, which always works on the “Peak – Recession – Trough – Recovery” scheme. The main cycle is the one known as the “Juglar cycle”, from the name of the 19th century French economist who theorized it. It lasts approximately 10 years, during which the economy comes from growth to recession. Beside this Juglar cycle, there is also a larger cycle, which is called “Kondratiev cycle”, this time from the name of a Russian economist. It deals with the long run: a Kondratiev cycle lasts 50 or 60 years and is composed of 25 (or 30) years of expansion and 25 (or 30) years of weak growth. Another type of cycle is the Kitchin cycle, which deals with the short turn but it is less interesting to analyze long period growth. The Juglar and the Kondratiev are relevant.
