This document provides an in-depth analysis of the economic recovery of G7 countries since the 2008 crisis, exploring the factors contributing to growth and the structural challenges faced by these nations. Written by Mickaël Clévenot, a lecturer at the University of Burgundy, this text offers a post-Keynesian and regulationist perspective on the medium-term economic prospects of these countries.
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[...] Among the G7 countries, it was the United Kingdom in 2014 that recorded the strongest GDP growth thanks to specific support provided to its companies to enable them to maintain their operations. This recovery of growth was made possible by the resumption of the financial cycle, the consumption of which is financed by debt; a mechanism on which the United States also relies. The crisis will not have had an impact on American growth, but it will have contributed to generating a loss of around 10% of its production capacity. For the euro zone, production capacities have been less affected compared to its growth. Countries are evolving structurally. [...]
[...] However, if we take a closer look at each country individually, the picture is less rosy. Indeed, many factors have contributed to this improvement, such as the decline in oil prices, interest rates or exchange rates, but it may not be maintained in the long term. In addition to these structural deficits (demographic, ecological, technical and socio-political concerns), the favored countries must also face. This crisis crossing is not fair for all nations." In terms of GDP, France has been in stagnation since 2011. [...]
[...] The approach of full employment in some states is not reassuring as it could lead to a lasting decrease in potential growth. The growth of rich countries has been steadily declining since the 60s with a prospect of stagnation over the coming decade. With globalization, production capacities no longer limit themselves to a national territory. The excessive presence of productive tools on a global scale causes a decrease in the price of goods and certain services and also has effects on the distribution of income. [...]
